Reflecting on BTC 100k

I first came across Bitcoin in 2011 when it was worth around $10 or so.

Back then, I was an overly philosophical 21-year-old, just about to finish college, and deeply obsessed with libertarian or more accurately, classical liberal thinking. I had serious ideological objections to the level of control governments exercised over our bodies, particularly when it came to the consumption of certain substances, and it was along these lines of inquiry that I first read about a marketplace on the dark web called Silk Road.

Silk Road, before being shut down by the FBI in 2013, used Bitcoin as a way to facilitate transactions in illegal drugs (and much worse). Being libertarian-minded but also highly risk averse, I never transacted on Silk Road, and never purchased (or sold short) Bitcoin. I did, however, follow closely the narrative of the original true believers of Bitcoin, its journey into the mainstream, and of course the spectacular boom-and-bust-and-boom cycles that increased its price 10,000-fold in the intervening 13 years.

What strikes me today looking back at the 13-year journey is the radically shifting narrative around what Bitcoin is good for.

In the early years, there was a lot of talk about the functions of currency, and there was a belief that Bitcoin’s adoption as currency would start from its use as a medium of exchange. Silk Road was an early example, but this narrative started to run into difficulties as it became apparent that Bitcoin at scale was orders of magnitude less efficient than existing, centralised payment technologies, such as credit cards. Bitcoin still appeared to have advantages in black/grey markets by side-stepping pesky regulations like KYC/AML, or sanctions and anti-terrorism financing, but the enthusiasm around Bitcoin as a medium of exchange dropped off markedly from the mid/late 2010s.

Many early believers in Bitcoin were, similarly to 21-year-old me, sceptical of governments and interested in libertarian ideology. They thought it was important that Bitcoin was designed as a “trustless”, decentralized system that was immune to government control. Coupled with the supply of Bitcoin forever capped at 21 million, Bitcoin could be seen as a store of value, a way of stashing away funds outside the reach of oppressive regimes.

Trustless Bitcoin, while ideologically pleasing to the true libertarian, was impractical. Firstly, one needed to exchange fiat currency to obtain Bitcoin through an “on-ramp” which was vulnerable to government monitoring. There were some Craigslist-type sites where the diehard libertarian could arrange a rendezvous in a dark alley to anonymously and untraceably exchange physical cash for the private keys to some Bitcoin, but this was completely unscalable in addition to the obvious risks of scams and abuse.

After some painful lessons from the collapse or hacking of some exchanges, such as Mt Gox in 2014, the libertarian Bitcoiner advocated for “self custody”, i.e. storing your coins by memorizing your private keys (or, as a second-best alternative, writing them down on a piece of paper that you hide away). Still, Bitcoin fortunes were easy-come-easy-go, and forgetting or losing your private keys meant that your Bitcoin was gone forever (as James Howells, the man suing for £500m the British municipality that would not let him dig up the landfill where the hard drive holding his private keys is believed to be buried, could tell you).

Libertarianism has ultimately always been a fringe ideology. It is forever doomed to appeal to philosophical weirdos but is too impractical and counterintuitive to win mainstream adoption. It is no accident, therefore, that Bitcoin’s spectacular conquest of the masses was enabled by shedding its libertarian roots.

To go big, Bitcoin had to become accessible. A new generation of centralized exchanges sprang up that saw Bitcoin first and foremost as a business and discarded all the trustless nonsense. The vast majority of Bitcoin today is bought by making a bank transfer to a business that has a copy of your passport, and your Bitcoin is never more than a court order away from being under the government’s control. Bitcoin ETFs, managed by the stalwarts of mainstream institutional finance, now allow enthusiasts to gain price exposure to Bitcoin while disregarding all of the founding principles of Bitcoin.

Most ironically, the wildest frenzy today about Bitcoin potentially hitting $200k, $1 million, or $10 million per coin, is driven by narratives of the U.S. government – the perennial libertarian bogeyman – creating a “Strategic Bitcoin Reserve”. The early believers thought that Bitcoin was valuable because it could exist outside government control – the wildest cheerleaders today are rooting for the government to take over. It is crazy, but crazier things have happened in politics.

The arguments for Bitcoin today feel unsatisfying in comparison to the early days.

I am told almost every day that Bitcoin is “digital gold”, a way of protecting one’s net worth against hyperinflation due to fiat money-printing. But there are many other assets that are better suited to hedge inflation (inflation-linked bonds, farmland, housing, commodities, actual gold), and you can access all of these easily through exchange-traded products the same way you hold a Bitcoin ETF.

I also hear that Bitcoin is a bet to preserve wealth in a post-apocalyptic world where society breaks down. Even ignoring that Bitcoin is entirely reliant on the continued functioning of the internet and computing, I would much rather stockpile canned food, a water purifier, guns, and ammunition.

I do believe Bitcoin has value today. I think Ken Griffin (founder of Citadel and probably the most important person in finance today) put it best – Bitcoin has captured the zeitgeist. It has a spectacular 15-year price chart, it has minted stellar fortunes for so many, and captivated the public. Bitcoin is valuable in the same way as the Kardashian name is valuable.

Will it last forever? I think not, but very few things do. You can probably still make money with it.

Reflecting on BTC 100k